Lebron James and the GOAT

Recently Lebron James stated that he was the greatest of all time because of his epic championship comeback win against the 73 win Golden State Warriors in 2015-2016. I want to dissect his sentiment and put it under the light of real scrutiny. I’m open to the possibility that Lebron is the greatest of all time. After that we will expand the argument further to see if Lebron really is the GOAT. 

So what was Lebron saying here? Was he saying that this victory ALONE made him the greatest of all time? That in fact by beating such a historically good team and in the fashion he did that he was the greatest ever? I don’t think so. There is more to it. 

Lebron also added that it was even more special because of the history of Cleveland sports. Cleveland hadn’t experienced a championship in a major U.S. Sport since 1964. Maybe that’s what Lebron meant. The victory was so incredible, to come back from down 3-1, against a 73 win team, along with his cities history of losing, that all this together made him the GOAT. Well let’s think about this. 

Let’s look at a few counterexamples and see how they stack up. 

In 1979 the Seattle Supersonics won the NBA championship, becoming the first major sports team in Seattle to win a championship since 1917. Dennis Johnson (better known as Larry Bird’s teammate on the Celtics in the 80’s) was the series MVP. Does that put Dennis Johnson in the discussion as GOAT? Obviously not. You might retort that the Supersonics were only an 11 year old franchise themselves. That the NFL and MLB franchises (Seahawks and Mariners) had only been around for two or three seasons at that point, so that the city simply didn’t have a crushing and disappointing history of losing year after year like Cleveland did. I might then come back to you and say that Seattle has proven itself a tremendous sports city (maybe the best?), and that maybe not having teams for so long was just as disappointing as losing. But who knows. And in any event the Supersonics beat the Washington Bullets 4-1, so it wasn’t an incredible come from behind victory either. Alright. 

How about the 2003-2004 NBA champion Detroit Pistons? They actually took down the three time in a row champion juggernaut that was the Shaq/Kobe Lakers. Two top ten players in the history of the game in their prime on one team, something rarely seen in the history of the league. And this team with one defensively minded all-star (Ben Wallace) actually beat them 4-1. It was a shocking victory if their ever was one. So is Chauncey Billups, or maybe Ben Wallace in the discussion for GOAT? Well you’d probably say the Pistons winning was surprising as all hell, but they still won 4-1. And the Pistons won two titles just ten or so years prior when they won two back to back in 1989 and 1990. And then you’d probably mention how the Detroit Tigers won the World Series in 1984, the Detroit Red Wings won the Stanley Cup three times in five years prior to the Pistons victory. OK, I’ll give you that one. 

So let’s say that Cleveland’s win really was the greatest comeback victory for a long running losing city ever. How exactly does that make LEBRON the greatest player of all time? Does the force of one victory prove someone is the greatest to ever play in a league? Clearly what Lebron meant was that with his whole career up to that point, and what he has continued to add to it makes him the greatest ever. So let’s dig deeper into his overall GOAT argument, and then circle back to the Championship in 2016. 

What makes someone the GOAT? Let’s try a few approaches. 

Let’s say you are the leader in a very important statistical category, like points or assists all time. Kareem Abdul Jabbar is the all time NBA points leader. John Stockton is the NBA’s all time assists leader. John Stockton is never discussed as the greatest player of all time. Kareem is occasionally thrown around, but Michael Jordan has been the culturally accepted GOAT for about 20 years now and he’s not the all time NBA scoring leader. So leading in these two categories really doesn’t settle the issue. Lebron may one day become the NBA all time scoring leader (it’s going to take 5 more seasons averaging 20 a game probably, he’s around 6,500 behind Jabbar), but he’s never going to be the assists leader (He’s over 10,000 behind Stockton). So even if Lebron get’s to the leading spot for points, it doesn’t seem that would make him the GOAT. 

Maybe being the leader in some newer advanced stat (we’ll go with career in these as well) would make someone the GOAT. How about PER? Well MJ is number one here, Lebron is number two. Maybe Win shares or win shares per 48 minutes? Kareem, Wilt Chamberlain and Karl Malone all have higher win shares totals, and MJ leads in win shares per 48 minutes. How about Box plus minus? Here Lebron is the leader all time edging out MJ at number two. How about Value Over Replacement Player (VORP)? Again, Lebron leads here over MJ at number two. Again, none of this conclusively tells us that Lebron is the GOAT. I’d argue here that MJ makes the better case, since he’s either number one in the category or one spot behind Lebron. 

Maybe winning the most NBA championships, or having the best record in championship appearances makes you the GOAT? Well Bill Russell has elven NBA championship rings, and no one is saying he’s the GOAT (at least not recently). And we won’t go into Lebron’s record in the finals, at three for nine he’s only winning in quantity over quality of appearances. 

I’m not going to go into things like MVP’s, all NBA teams, All Star teams, none of that. They are voted on by writers or fans and they are often more a part of writers and fans narratives about players then they are about what’s really going on. 

So what is really left? The only argument left is the same argument used for so long to say that Michael Jordan is the GOAT, that it’s a mix of all of these categories which brings us certainty as to our pronouncement of who is the GOAT. And the fact of the matter is that there’s nothing really there when we try to find it for Lebron. Lebron does not lead in any career statistical category in the NBA. The myth that he’s somehow the GOAT in advanced stats isn’t true. He doesn’t have some overwhelmingly dominance in winning championships. He is by far the greatest player since Michael Jordan retired. But that doesn’t make him the GOAT, it puts him ahead of everyone else who has competed to be the GOAT since 2003. 

But maybe by adding in the incredible 2016 victory over the Warriors sets Lebron apart? Certainly a victory like that stands out head and shoulders above anyone else’s unique accomplishments, right? Not so fast. Is winning one impressive championship more impressive than MJ going on two different three-peats? Or Bill Russell winning eight straight tiles? Or Kareem’s six NBA titles along with three NCAA titles? All of those are very impressive distinctions that no one else can claim. Lebron is claiming 1 title beats accomplishments such as that. I don’t think so, but decide for yourself. 

Again, I don’t think Lebron has a good GOAT argument, I’ll say that again. He’s by far the best player since MJ, but that doesn’t mean he has surpassed MJ or a few other people who were already solidified as legends in the sport. Lebron and many in the sports media are jumping to the conclusion that being the best SINCE Jordan means you’ve surpassed Jordan, and everyone else in the discussion. Not true.